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C&WP alumni Joel Wuthnow recently participated in a NBC News “Meet the Press Reports” episode featuring a US-China war game in a Taiwan scenario in 2027. The episode, hosted by Chuck Todd and organized by friends at CNAS, helps explain the risks of escalation as well as the need for improved deterrence. The episode is available for free streaming on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=qYfvm-JLhPQ
Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National for Strategic Studies…
The Ukraine war has entered its third month with no diplomatic resolution in sight. Despite this, some have argued that while the war will have an impact on Russia, its neighbours, and the rest of Europe, it will have little consequence for Asia or the global order. This is wishful thinking at best, and shortsightedness at worst. The Ukraine crisis is not simply about the European security order. It has huge ramifications for the future of order in Asia. And by extension, given that Asia comprises nearly 60% of the world’s population and 32% of the world’s Gross Domestic…
For its first 65 years, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) rarely ventured beyond Asia. Although Chinese troops surged across the Korean, Indian, and Vietnamese borders at times during the Cold War and prepared to take Taiwan by force, they had neither the capabilities nor a compelling rationale to deploy to more distant regions. Yet beginning in the 1990s and accelerating in the 21st century, the PLA has been out and about more widely in several contexts: UN peacekeeping missions, antipiracy operations off the Horn of Africa, and ad hoc relief missions in places such as Libya and Yemen…
As war continues in Ukraine, many U.S. analysts fear both Russia’s adventurist and autocratic playbook and the lessons China will draw from it. But for India, a major U.S. partner, the war in Ukraine is playing out differently. Ukraine risks distracting from the rise of China and, at worst, bolstering it.
Much has been written about India’s relationship with Russia and how that affects its position on Ukraine, but the analysis of India’s positions in the conflict are incomplete without taking into account the history of India’s relationship with China. India and China’s…
According to popular accounts, China’s international influence is increasing with its growing material capabilities. However, researchers repeatedly demonstrate gaps between China’s power and its influence. Building on earlier research, we propose an inclusive approach to conceptualizing China’s influence abroad. Our approach conditions China’s net influence on three dimensions. First, intentionality distinguishes between intentional influence-seeking and influence that accrues unintentionally via influence externalities. Second, a systematic treatment of Chinese intermediaries–the diverse…
The recent announcement of a new security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands has rattled leaders in Washington, Canberra, and other Indo-Pacific capitals who fear it opens the door to a Chinese military presence in the southern Pacific. Much of the attention has been on the deal’s potential to lead to a Chinese military base on the island nation, and the power-projection capabilities the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would gain as a result. But the new pact raises another critical question that has received less attention: is China is reentering the business of militarily propping…
Is China’s deal with the Solomon Islands another sign that it is growing more influential in the South Pacific? The bilateral security cooperation agreement signed in April reflects Beijing’s longtime engagement with and growing influence in the South Pacific. Since President Xi Jinping took office, the Chinese government has twice elevated China’s diplomatic partnership with the region. Eight countries in the region are China’s comprehensive strategic partners, the highest classification of diplomatic partnership in China’s foreign relations. Top Chinese officials have frequently visited…