"China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma" - by CWP alum Yeling Tan

Traditional conceptions of export- or domestic investment–led growth no longer appropriately capture the dynamics shaping the Chinese economy. Rather, China has adopted a model in which national security logic increasingly underpins economic policy. This paper first outlines the main components of this growth model: a dual circulation strategy for balancing between external and domestic demand, a domestic industrial strategy premised on self-reliant innovation, and a legal and regulatory toolkit to respond to perceived acts of economic coercion from abroad. It then identifies potential implementation challenges and tensions emerging from such a growth strategy and discusses the ways these tensions might deepen the US-China security dilemma. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for mitigating these security dilemma risks, through unilateral and bilateral actions, some of which could be based on core principles in multilateral trade regimes.

Yeling Tan (PIIE) - Working Paper 26-15 - August 2026

Yeling Tan is Professor of Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government. She is also a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Her research focuses on the political economy of globalisation, development, and policymaking, with a focus on China and the Asian region. She holds a PhD in Public Policy and an MPA in International Development from Harvard University, and a BA in International Relations and Economics from Stanford University. Prior to joining Oxford, Professor Tan was an assistant professor of political science at the University of Oregon and a postdoctoral research fellow at Princeton University. She has also worked in the public and non-governmental sectors on a range of issues including economic development, international security policy, global governance and governance innovations. 

Professor Tan’s latest book is Disaggregating China, Inc: State Strategies in the Liberal Economic Order (Cornell University Press Studies in Political Economy), which has been awarded the Peter Katzenstein book prize and the Georgetown Joseph S. Lepgold book prize. Her articles have been published in Comparative Political Studies, the Review of International Organizations, International Studies Quarterly, the China Journal, Governance, and Global Policy. Professor Tan’s earlier books include China Experiments: from Local Innovations to National Reform (Brookings Institution Press) and Asia’s Role in Governing Global Health (Routledge). Professor Tan has also written for Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy and Bloomberg Opinion.

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