"Is China-Taiwan Rapprochement Possible? Experimental Evidence From Taiwan" - by CWP alum Scott Kastner
Any peaceful resolution to the Cross-Strait conflict between China and Taiwan is likely to be composed of give-and-take between the two sides, and any agreement will ultimately require the support of Taiwan’s citizens, by whom Taiwan’s leaders are held accountable. Yet little is known about the actual tradeoffs Taiwanese citizens are willing to make in pursuit of an agreement in a time of peace. In conjoint experiments fielded in Taiwan in April 2022, we present Taiwanese respondents with hypothetical Cross-Strait agreements that randomly assign economic, security, and sovereignty-related concessions by the two sides. We find that support for agreements is conditioned by the concessions included, with sovereignty-related or security-related concessions by Taiwan lowering support, and sovereignty or security-related concessions by China increasing support. Additionally, respondents indicate that neither US support nor PRC threats significantly influence support for agreements, and that Taiwan's acceptance of an agreement substantially reduces the perceived likelihood of conflict.
Hsin-Hsin Pan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4701-9927, Scott L. Kastner, and Margaret M. Pearson - https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002724130 - First published online November 20, 2024
Scott L. Kastner is a Professor in the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park. He graduated from Cornell University (1995), and received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, San Diego (2003). Much of Kastner's research focuses on the international politics of East Asia, and he teaches classes on international relations, US-China relations, international political economy, and East Asia. He is author of War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait (Columbia University Press, 2022), China’s Strategic Multilateralism: Investing in Global Governance (with Margaret Pearson and Chad Rector, Cambridge University Press, 2019) and Political Conflict and Economic Interdependence across the Taiwan Strait and Beyond (Stanford University Press, 2009). His work has also appeared in journals such as International Security, Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, Comparative Political Studies, Security Studies, and Journal of Contemporary China.
Photo Credit: By This Photo was taken by Supanut Arunoprayote.Feel free to use any of my images, but please mention me as the author and may send me a message.(สามารถใช้ภาพได้อิสระ แต่กรุณาใส่เครดิตผู้ถ่ายและอาจส่งข้อความบอกกล่าวด้วย), CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=135857162
