'The Quantum Revolution: A Guide for Allied Policymakers' - by CWP alum Eyck Freymann

July 10, 2026
The Quantum Revolution A Guide for Allied Policymakers

Quantum technologies are moving from the laboratory toward strategic relevance but at different speeds and with different implications for allied security. This report offers nontechnical policymakers in allied countries a comprehensive guide to quantum computing, sensing, and communications: where each stands, how China is competing, and why no single nation can control the stack. It argues that US leadership in the quantum era will depend on orchestrating resilient alliance networks.

Key Takeaways

  • Quantum technologies represent not one race but three. Quantum computing, sensing, and communications are advancing on distinct timelines and pose distinct strategic questions. Policymakers should resist the temptation to treat “quantum” as a single domain.
  • Fault-tolerant quantum computing may arrive in the early 2030s, faster than most forecasts assume. Quantum volume has grown tenfold annually since 2018. If current trends hold across qubit count, coherence, fidelity, and error correction, the inflection point will come sooner than the conventional wisdom allows, with enormous implications for cryptography, materials science, and strategic competition.
  • Quantum sensing is the near-term workhorse. It is closest to commercial and military deployment, particularly for jam- and spoof-resistant positioning, navigation, and timing. The US lead in sensing has narrowed considerably since 2022 and requires urgent attention.
  • The quantum landscape is irreducibly multipolar. The US leads in quantum computing platforms; China leads in quantum communications deployment; Europe and Japan anchor critical component supply chains in cryogenics, lasers, optics, and detectors. No nation, including the United States, is self-sufficient.
  • Post-quantum cryptography, not quantum key distribution (QKD), is the practical hedge against “harvest-now, decrypt-later” risks. QKD remains range-limited, expensive, and dependent on vulnerable classical layers. The US federal migration target of 2035 should be treated as a floor, not a ceiling.

 

Tuesday, July 7, 2026 1 min readBy: Eyck Freymann, Sebastian Orbell, Sophie Coste, Katharina Klotz

https://www.hoover.org/research/quantum-revolution-guide-allied-policymakers

Eyck Freymann is a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University, where he directs the Allied Coordination Working Group and participates in the Applied History Working Group. He is the author of several books, including Defending Taiwan, The Arsenal of Democracy, and One Belt One Road.  

Photo Credit: https://www.hoover.org/research/quantum-revolution-guide-allied-policymakers
 

Eyck Freymann is a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University, where he directs the Allied Coordination Working Group and participates in the Applied History Working Group. He is the author of several books, including Defending Taiwan, The Arsenal of Democracy, and One Belt One Road.