"Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which theUS and Its Allies Could NotRetreat" - by CWP alum Andrew Erickson
This paper addresses one of the most dangerous, consequential flashpoints on the planet today, and for years into the future: a potential attempt by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to annex Taiwan. The aftermath would likely trigger the worst economic shocks experienced in more than a century, unleashing a cycle of repression and diminishing the quality of life for populations across Asia and beyond, with devastating impacts on American interests and Americans’ well-being. Moreover, China’s annexation of Taiwan could exacerbate regional tensions and extend into a broader, global conflict. At stake are crucial interests such as the semiconductors that power today’s big data world and the national security of U.S. allies and partners. Neighboring states’ responses to PRC expansion could also result in the erosion of American military advantages as well as the destabilization of democracy and the international order. With Xi Jinping, the paramount leader of the PRC, consolidating power and approaching the zenith of his ambitions and ability to execute them, this increasingly worrisome scenario and its profound implications demand immediate attention. With so much at stake, it is critical to take proactive measures to avert such a crisis. U.S. policymakers must urgently double down on efforts to deter Xi throughout this “decade of maximum danger.”1
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat (Houston, TX: Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, 1 August 2024).
Dr. Andrew S. Erickson (艾立信) is Professor of Strategy (tenured full professor) in NWC’s China Maritime Studies Institute. A core founding member, he helped establish CMSI and stand it up officially in 2006 and has played an integral role in its development; from 2021–23 he served as Research Director. CMSI inspired the creation of other research centers, which he has advised and supported; he is a China Aerospace Studies Institute Associate. Since 2008 he has been an Associate in Research at Harvard’s Fairbank Center. Erickson has taught courses at NWC and Yonsei University, advises NWC student research and curricula and supports NWC’s scholarly research relations with Japanese counterparts.
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