"中国將如何阻遏美国干预台海战争" - Translator Shunshun (Emerson) Xu (Tsui), author CWP alum Joel Wuthnow
Thanks to Shunshun(Emerson) Xu (Tsui) for translating into Chinese, CWP alum Joel Wuthnow's War on the Rocks article on China's counter-intervention options. We appreciate his efforts to make U.S. writings more accessible to a Chinese-speaking audience through the Carter Center and its U.S.-China Perceptions Monitor.
编者按：对中国而言，台湾问题是“实现祖国完全统一”的关键一环，而“武统”台湾的可能性也使台海冲突成为中美关系的焦点与潜在引爆点。在有关解放军跨海峡作战的讨论中，“美国是否以及如何介入”始终是影响中国战略评估的核心变量。若冲突爆发，北京可能采取哪些反制措施以阻遏美军干预、实现其战略目标？对此，美国国防大学高级研究员吴志远博士（Joel Wuthnow, Ph.D.）在其近期发表于权威安全政策平台《War on the Rocks》的文章中（文章英文题目为“How China Could Counter U.S. Intervention in War Over Taiwan”），系统剖析了中国可能采纳的“反干预”路径。请点击此处访问原文，亦可点击此处阅读吴志远博士关于台海“持久战”四类情境的分析。本篇翻译由本站特约撰稿人徐宇深执笔，欢迎读者进一步阅读新美国安全中心（CNAS）最新台湾安全报告，作为延伸材料参考。
关于中国军方如何应对美军干预台海冲突的讨论，长期聚焦于对美国在西太平洋部队的精确打击。确实，一些兵棋推演假设解放军将率先发动攻击。然而，这并非中国决策层唯一可选的路径。其他选项还包括：在美方尚未来得及动员前对台发动突袭、对美国盟国施压，阻止美军使用前沿基地，或是诉诸战略威慑，意图从根本上打消华盛顿出兵保卫台湾的意愿。
在所有选项中，战略性威慑或许对北京最具吸引力。其核心逻辑在于：令美国政府相信，一旦介入台海冲突，美国本土将面临难以承受的风险——包括针对电力和通信系统的网络攻击，甚至核升级的威胁。因此，北京可能谋求利用其日益扩张的核武库（及其释放出的核信号）、新型洲际常规导弹、太空与网络作战能力，并借助“北京比华盛顿更具意志”的战略信念，构建这种威慑态势。若中国领导层采纳这一思路，或将判断台海战争可控于有限范围之内，从而更有可能倾向于采取进攻行动。
为应对中国战略威慑所带来的挑战，特朗普政府应进一步将国土防御与印太地区安全深度融合，实现统一筹划，从而在海内外同时维持有效威慑。此举将向北京明确传达一个关键信号：绕过美国印太司令部另辟战场的企图注定无法得逞。与此同时，政府还应启动一场战略沟通行动，重点强调危机意外升级所可能引发的严重后果。
Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
His recent books and monographs include China’s Quest for Military Supremacy (Polity, 2025, with Phillip C. Saunders), Sea Dragons: Special Operations and Chinese Military Strategy (Naval War College Press, 2025, with John Chen), Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (NDU Press, 2022, lead editor), and Gray Dragons: Assessing China's Senior Military Leadership (NDU Press, 2022). His research and commentary has also appeared in outlets such as Asia Policy, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, The China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Joint Force Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Naval War College Review, The New York Times, and in edited volumes.
Prior to joining NDU, Dr. Wuthnow was a China analyst at CNA, a postdoctoral fellow in the China and the World Program at Princeton University, and a pre-doctoral fellow at The Brookings Institution. His degrees are from Princeton University (A.B., summa cum laude, in Public and International Affairs), Oxford University (M.Phil. in Modern Chinese Studies), and Columbia University (Ph.D. in Political Science). He is proficient in Mandarin.
作者
徐宇深是本站特约撰稿人，曾在卡特中心和亚洲协会实习。
Photo Credit: https://zmyx.info/how-will-china-counter-american-intervention-in-war-over-taiwan/
