"A War of Chance" with CWP alum Joel Wuthnow
Any who study international relations, security, and history will necessarily be familiar with the paradoxical cost-benefit structure of war: armed conflicts are both extremely inefficient and costly for all parties involved while simultaneously being regrettably common across history. One amongst the many explanations for war continuing to rear its ugly head despite its universally ruinous price is that conflict oftentimes arises without intention. As assuredly as the great powers at the turn of the 20th century did not seek to fall into a war that would kill millions and reshape the world in its entirety, so too do today’s world leaders not seek another world war that threatens society as we know it. Yet, just as tangled alliances, rampant militarism, and a catalyzing political assassination set a bloody chain reaction in motion more than a century ago, today again the stage is set for the possibility of a war no one wants to arrive all the same. In this context of a possible war of chance, rather than choice, between today’s great powers, it is more vital than ever to understand what may cause, and more pointedly prevent, of war of chance.
To better understand what dangers lie on the road ahead, as well as what may be done to disarm them, The Monitor spoke with Dr. Joel Wuthnow. Dr. Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University as well as an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. His research includes topics such as Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. Moreover, he is the author of several published works, including China’s Quest for Military Supremacy, which he co-authored alongside Phillip C. Saunders, and his recent Foreign Affairs article The Greatest Danger in the Taiwan Strait. Tyler Quillen sat down with Dr. Wuthnow to discuss the risk of a war of chance in the Pacific, what makes this risk particularly acute in the Taiwan Strait, and what can be done to de-risk interactions between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei.
Tyler Quillen and The Monitor - Dec 03, 2025 -
Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
His recent books and monographs include China’s Quest for Military Supremacy (Polity, 2025, with Phillip C. Saunders), Sea Dragons: Special Operations and Chinese Military Strategy (Naval War College Press, 2025, with John Chen), Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (NDU Press, 2022, lead editor), and Gray Dragons: Assessing China's Senior Military Leadership (NDU Press, 2022). His research and commentary has also appeared in outlets such as Asia Policy, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, The China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Joint Force Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Naval War College Review, The New York Times, and in edited volumes.
Prior to joining NDU, Dr. Wuthnow was a China analyst at CNA, a postdoctoral fellow in the China and the World Program at Princeton University, and a pre-doctoral fellow at The Brookings Institution. His degrees are from Princeton University (A.B., summa cum laude, in Public and International Affairs), Oxford University (M.Phil. in Modern Chinese Studies), and Columbia University (Ph.D. in Political Science). He is proficient in Mandarin.
Photo Credit: https://uscnpm.substack.com/p/a-war-of-chance-w-joel-wuthnow?triedRedirect=true
