"Signaling, interests, and domestic politics: What matters for US credibility in Taiwan" - by CWP alum Ronan Fu
There have been growing calls for a rethink of U.S. policy towards Taiwan. Some argue that the U.S. should signal stronger commitment to Taiwan to deter China and maintain peace. To do so, a growing number of commentators and policymakers advocate that the U.S. provide a clear security guarantee to Taiwan. Others have suggested deploying troops on Taiwanese soil again. These calls beg an empirical question, one central to the study of international politics: how much would such reassurance measures increase confidence that one country would defend another if attacked? We find that an alliance with the U.S. and the deployment of troops on Taiwan would meaningfully increase confidence in the U.S. even when controlling for other factors. By estimating the magnitude of the effect of other variables cited in the literature, we also contribute to the ongoing debate over their relative influence on credibility. Specifically, our evidence suggests that the perceived alignment of interests is the cornerstone of credibility. The degree of division in the domestic politics of the patron state, in this case the U.S., also is a crucial determinant of credibility.
Ronan Tse-min Fu, Elaine I-lien Lee, Gene Park
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, lcae017, https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcae017
Dr. Ronan Tse-min Fu is an Assistant Research Fellow in the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica (IPSAS). Prior to joining IPSAS, he was a Columbia-Harvard China and the World Program Postdoctoral Fellow at the School of International and Public Affairs, with additional postdoctoral affiliations at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and the Department of Political Science, Columbia University.
Dr. Fu received a PhD from University of Southern California in Political Science and International Relations (2019). His research interests lie in the intersection of international relations theory and comparative politics, with a specific focus on grand strategy, East Asian security, Chinese politics and foreign policy, and historical roots of contemporary relations in East Asia.
Dr. Fu’s work has appeared in International Security, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, and Political Geography. My research has been funded by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of China, Fulbright Taiwan, China Times Cultural Foundation, and the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation for International Scholarly Exchange, among others
Photo Credit: By 總統府 - 08.03 總統與美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西媒體互動會, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=121370722
