"The Politics of Promotion in China’s Foreign Policy Bureaucracy" - by CWP alum Tyler Jost
Abstract A robust literature on the professional advancement of Chinese officials has paid comparatively little attention to an important elite group: the foreign policy bureaucracy. We introduce original data documenting over 11,000 career assignments of 1,357 senior officials in the foreign ministry from 1949 to 2023 and leverage these data to offer the first systematic analysis of who rises to the top of China’s foreign affairs system. We find that diplomats who spend a greater share of their careers in postings abroad are less likely to be promoted to higher ranks than diplomats who remain at home – and that these patterns persisted even after the professionalization of the foreign affairs bureaucracy. Meanwhile, the analysis finds only mixed evidence that diplomatic performance assists promotion. The data and analysis draw attention to the unique challenges of professional advancement in bureaucracies charged with managing China’s foreign relations.
摘要 关于中国官员职业晋升的大量文献对一个重要的精英群体—外交政策官僚机构—的关注相对较少。 本文基于一套原创数据, 系统记录了1949年至2023年间中国外交部1,357位高级官员共计11,000余次 职务任命,并据此提供首个系统性研究,探讨哪些类型的官员更有可能晋升至中国外事系统的高层。 我们发现, 相较于在国内任职的外交官, 那些职业生涯中有更大比例时间在海外任职的外交官, 其 晋升至更高职位的可能性显著较低, 即便是在外事官僚机构经历专业化改革之后, 这一趋势依然 存在。同时,我们仅发现有限证据表明外交绩效显著促进官员晋升。本文的数据与分析揭示了在负 责管理中国对外关系的官僚机构中, 官员职业晋升所面临的独特挑战。
The China Quarterly (2025), 1–20 doi:10.1017/S030574102510091X
Tyler Jost is Assistant Professor of Political Science, International & Public Affairs and Watson Institute Assistant Professor of China Studies. His research focuses on national security decision-making, bureaucratic politics, and Chinese foreign policy. Dr. Jost’s current book project examines domestic institutions designed to decide and coordinate national security policy, such as the U.S. National Security Council. Dr. Jost completed his doctoral degree in the Department of Government at Harvard University. He has held postdoctoral fellowships in the International Security Program at the Kennedy School of Government, as well as in the China and the World Program at Columbia University. His research has been supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation, the U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies.
Photo Credit: By 澳门特别行政区立法会 / Assembleia Legislativa da Região Administrativa Especial de Macau / Legislative Assembly of the Macau Special Administrative Region - Modified by Supreme Dragon, originally created an .svg file based on .png image File:National Emblem of the People's Republic of China.png. Originally uploaded by Avala to English Wikipedia. and also see 国徽方格墨线图., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=59997216
