"PacNet #82 – Why Xi Jinping May Not Be Itching for a War with Taiwan" - by CWP alum Joel Wuthnow

China’s military maneuvers near Taiwan are becoming bigger and bolder. In a single day in September, the Chinese air force sent more than 100 warplanes into the island’s southwestern “air defense identification zone” and across the midline of the Taiwan Strait —the largest incursion in history. This followed large-scale naval drills involving an aircraft carrier sailing to the east of Taiwan.

As tensions mount ahead of Taiwan’s January presidential election, analysts are asking whether recent Chinese activities are just shows of force, or whether Xi Jinping could be readying his forces for war. Some senior officials have already suggested a war could come sooner than later. Last year, Delaware Senator Chris Coons said that China could opt for a strategy of ‘go early and go strong,’” and in January, Air Force general Mike Minihan said “My gut tells me” there will be a fight in 2025.

https://pacforum.org/publication/pacnet-82-why-xi-jinping-may-not-be-itching-for-a-war-with-taiwan

Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. 

His recent books and monographs, all from NDU Press, include Gray Dragons: Assessing China's Senior Military Leadership (2022), Crossing the Strait: China's Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (2022, lead editor), The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context (2021, lead editor), System Overload: Can China's Military Be Distracted in a War over Taiwan? (2020), and Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms (2019, co-editor). His research and commentary has also appeared in outlets such as Asia Policy, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, The China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Joint Force Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Naval War College Review, and in edited volumes.

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