"The Myth of Chinese Diversionary War" - by CWP alum M. Taylor Fravel

As the growth of China’s economy slows, politicians in the West are increasingly concerned that Beijing will lash out to deflect domestic attention from its internal problems. In August 2023, for example, U.S. President Joe Biden described China’s economic difficulties as a “ticking time bomb,” suggesting that China’s woes might propel its leaders to “do bad things.” 

Scholars and analysts have reached similar conclusions. Richard Haass, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, has argued that in response to China’s economic slowdown, Beijing could embrace “even more aggressive nationalism” as a basis for legitimacy

The Myth of Chinese Diversionary War  Domestic Turmoil Won’t Make Beijing Launch an Attack—but Will Make It More Likely to React to External Threats By M. Taylor Fravel September 15, 2023

M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Taylor studies international relations, with a focus on international security, China, and East Asia. His books include Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes, (Princeton University Press, 2008) and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949 (Princeton University Press, 2019). His other publications have appeared in International Security, Foreign Affairs, Security Studies, International Studies Review, The China Quarterly, The Washington Quarterly, Journal of Strategic Studies, Armed Forces & Society, Current History, Asian Survey, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, and Contemporary Southeast Asia.

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