'Memo on U.S. Policy to China' with task force member and co-director of C&WP Thomas Christensen

In this policy memo, we distill and synthesize key insights that emerged from many discussions among the Task Force members. The ensuing recommendations aim to reinforce American leadership, safeguard economic and national security interests, and promote a sustainable long-term strategy for managing U.S.-China competition. 

1. The Chinese government faces significant self-inflicted domestic problems, which are more severe than most outsiders recognize. While Xi Jinping remains steadfast in his geopolitical ambitions, pursues high-tech self-sufficiency, and focuses on regime security, he has an interest in stabilizing relations with the U.S. China’s internal difficulties create opportunities for negotiation on various bilateral issues.
    
2. Negotiations can begin with trade and investment and extend step by step to broader issues including China’s assuming greater geopolitical responsibility, exercising restraint toward its Asian neighbors, and curbing interference with critical U.S. infrastructure. A laddered approach is more feasible than a “grand bargain.”
    
3. The U.S. should introduce economic pressure and positive incentives in a phased and targeted manner to achieve negotiating leverage while avoiding escalation to a trade war.
    
4. Negotiations that offer Beijing a clear choice between competitive coexistence and deepening contestation will resonate with many inside China and strengthen U.S. standing among allies, partners and other countries. Diplomatic initiatives taken now can increase internal pressure on Xi to moderate his policies, stabilize U.S.-China relations, and set the stage for his successors to pursue a more pragmatic course—even if he does not.
    
5. Technology restrictions should be risk-based, periodically reassessed, and aligned with U.S. interests and those of its allies. Attracting talents, higher education collaboration, and science diplomacy enhance U.S. competitiveness. Restrictions on investments and talent flows should take care to protect national security without eroding America’s technological edge or hindering beneficial scientific cooperation. One of the most complex challenges in U.S.-China negotiations is determining whether existing or future technology restrictions should be open for discussion.
    
6. Strengthening deterrence and Taiwan’s asymmetric capabilities is an urgent priority amid rapid PLA modernization. At no point should Washington suggest it would abandon Taiwan or other partners as part of any bargain with China.
    
7. The U.S. should increase security, economic, and technology collaboration with allies in the Indo-Pacific region, while selectively engaging China in some appropriate regional initiatives as well. We must be vigilant not to squander U.S. advantages or weaken our global standing in our competition with China.
    
8. While U.S. policy is unlikely to alter the trajectory of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) modernization, recent developments suggest China may be open to limited discussions on risk reduction.
    
9. China’s policies in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Tibet, and its effort to build support for them, demand a sustained counterforce. While the U.S. has limited ability to influence China’s domestic policies, it must firmly oppose efforts to export authoritarian practices beyond China’s borders.

This Executive Summary, along with the ensuing Policy Recommendations, is not a signed statement from the Task Force but represents our best effort to distill key insights and recommendations from wide-ranging discussions among Task Force members at this juncture. 

Thomas Christensen is a member of the task force and helped produce the report

Thomas J. Christensen is Professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and the World Program at Columbia University.  He arrived in 2018 from Princeton University where he was William P. Boswell Professor of World Politics of Peace and War, Director of the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program, and faculty director of the Masters of Public Policy Program and the Truman Scholars Program.   From 2006-2008 he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus on China’s foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security.  His most recent book is Lost in the Cold War: The Story of Jack Downey, America’s Longest-Held POW (Columbia Univ. Press, 2022).  His earlier book, The China Challenge:  Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power (W.W. Norton) was an editors’ choice at the New York Times Book Review, a “Book of the Week” on CNN”s Fareed Zakaria GPS, and the Arthur Ross Book Award Silver Medalist for 2016 at the Council on Foreign Relations. Professor Christensen has also taught at Cornell University and MIT. He received his B.A. with honors in History from Haverford College, M.A. in International Relations from the University of Pennsylvania, and Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University. He has served on the Board of Directors and the Executive Committee of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, as co-editor of the International History and Politics series at Princeton University Press, and as a member of the Academic Advisory Committee for the Schwarzman Scholars Program. He is currently the Chair of the Editorial Board of the Nancy B. Tucker and Warren I. Cohen Book Series on the United States in Asia at Columbia University Press.  Professor Christensen is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a Non-Resident Senior Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He was presented with a Distinguished Public Service Award by the United States Department of State.

Photo Credit: https://asiasociety.org/center-us-china-relations/memo-us-policy-china