"How Coercive Diplomacy Works: Making Threats in International Crises Get access Arrow" book chapter by CWP alum Jessica Chen Weiss

This chapter examines how coercive diplomacy operates, showing how states use threats to influence international crises while avoiding open conflict. It distinguishes between deterrence, which seeks to maintain the status quo, and compellence, which demands change, noting that the latter is particularly difficult, with a historical success rate of only 35%. Credibility plays a crucial role, as coercers must ensure their threats are both believable and conditional while balancing punishment with assurances and, at times, inducements. The chapter also explores strategies for enhancing credibility, including costly signals, audience costs, and risk-taking, while warning of the dangers of misperception and escalation, especially in nuclear crises. Finally, the chapter underscores that coercive diplomacy is not merely a test of power but a complex interplay of credibility, communication, and strategic judgment.

Chapter 7 How Coercive Diplomacy Works: Making Threats in International Crises Get access Arrow Reid B. C. Pauly, Jessica Chen Weiss https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197791004.003.0008  Pages 195–222 Published: August 2025

Jessica Chen Weiss is the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies and the inaugural faculty director of the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs (ACF) at SAIS. From August 2021 to July 2022, she served as senior advisor to the Secretary's Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department on a Council on Foreign Relations Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars (IAF-TIRS). Weiss is the author of Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China’s Foreign Relations (Oxford University Press, 2014). Her research appears in International Organization, China Quarterly, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Security Studies, Journal of Contemporary China, and Review of International Political Economy. With commentary in the New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Los Angeles Times, and the Ezra Klein show, Weiss was profiled by the New Yorker and named one of Prospect Magazine's Top Thinkers for 2024. Weiss is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute Center for China Analysis and previously the Michael J. Zak Professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Cornell University and an assistant professor at Yale University. She founded FACES, the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford University. Born and raised in Seattle, Washington, she received her Ph.D. from the University of California, San Diego.

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