"The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Scenarios and Pathways for Arctic 2050" - by CWP alum Eyck Freymann

Last month, the Arctic Initiative held a closed-door seminar for climate scientists, regional experts, Indigenous and youth leaders, and national security officials from six Arctic states. Our goal was to identify the most plausible scenarios (end-states) and pathways (path-dependent processes leading to end-states) for how geopolitics linked to climate change in the Arctic might evolve and identify actionable steps that the U.S. government might consider taking today to manage emerging risks. The event was conducted off the record, with a lively and wide-ranging discussion.

This report summarizes my key takeaways from the event for a public audience. I should emphasize that the group brought to bear a wide range of perspectives and did not seek to establish unanimous agreement on any specific items. The views below are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or conclusions of any of the participants. 

Eyck Freymann is a former joint Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Belfer Center's Arctic Initiative and the Columbia–Harvard China & the World Program, where he researched the geopolitics of climate change. He is also a Non-Resident Research Fellow with the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College. 

His first book, One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World, was published by the Harvard Asia Center Press in 2020. His writings on U.S.–China relations and other current affairs topics have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, The Economist, Foreign Policy, and The Atlantic. As a reporter and columnist for The Wire China, he is also the author of “The Warming War,” a series of reports on the breakdown in climate diplomacy and its implications for the planet and the U.S.–China relationship. 

Photo Credit: By Hunter Allen and Richard Rivera (NOAA’s Climate Program Office)http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/arctic-warming-exceeds-global-average - http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ArcticYearlongTempAnom_HR.jpg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=17595503