"Floods and public perceptions of climate change" - by CWP alum Meir Alkon

The increase in recent floods caused by extreme rainfall events amid global temperature rise underscores the need to understand how these hazards shape public perceptions of climate change, and consequently, design effective communication strategies that promote adaptation and mitigation efforts. By analyzing climate risk perceptions across various demographics and regions worldwide, we find a strong link between personal flood experiences and climate change concern: the percentage of individuals concerned about climate change is 17.4 percentage points higher among those who have experienced floods in the past five years than among those who have not. Concerns are particularly pronounced in flood-prone areas, high-income countries, and regions with greater proportions of women, elderly, and those with higher education and income. These findings suggest that recent flood experiences are linked to heightened climate change concern, particularly in affluent nations. Understanding these dynamics is essential for crafting targeted communication strategies and developing proactive policies that address the growing intersection of a warming climate and increasing flood hazards.

Ye Zhao, Zhanwei Liu, Alan D. Ziegler, Meir Alkon, Kangjuan Lv, Xiaogang He,
Floods and public perceptions of climate change,
Journal of Hydrology,
2026,
135810,
ISSN 0022-1694,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135810.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169426009078)

The impacts of global warming and climate variability are nonuniform globally (Cruz and Rossi-Hansberg, 2021), unequally influencing public perceptions and the willingness of nations to adopt climate-driven hazard mitigation strategies (Gärtner and Schoen, 2021; Nohrstedt et al., 2021). Prior research uses changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events to demonstrate the extent of climate change impacts (Howe et al., 2019a; Zhan et al., 2020; Gebrechorkos et al., 2025). While the climate change phenomenon is often associated with increasing extreme hazard events, attribution can be complex and sometimes not possible (Trenberth et al., 2015).

We are interested in understanding how perceptions of climate change and exposure to extreme events, namely floods, affect societal perceptions about climate change. Such perspectives offer insights into the interplay between climate variability, environmental hazard risk, and population vulnerability, factors that are crucial in informing adaptive and mitigation measures (Egan and Mullin, 2012; Field et al., 2012; Ahmad and Kam, 2024). Although prior studies use public opinion surveys to explore perceptions of climate change (Tranter and Booth, 2015; Knight, 2016), it remains unclear to what extent extreme weather events influence these concerns. This issue is poignant for floods – which are among the most common and disruptive hazards linked with a changing climate (Shao et al., 2017; He et al., 2020). The intersection is important, particularly for those living in a flood prone areas where climate change may increase the likelihood of more frequent and intense storm events in the future (Hirabayashi et al., 2013).

Photo Credit: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169426009078#references