"Do you think David can win against Goliath? Evidence on factors affecting popular perceptions of victory in Taiwan against Chinese aggression" - by CWP alum Ronan Tse-min Fu
How do citizens form perceptions of victory in war under power asymmetry? Although scholars have extensively studied the objective determinants of war outcomes, we know far less about how citizens subjectively weigh these factors. We examine this question in Taiwan, a demanding test: extreme power asymmetry with China, an available American patron, and a politically engaged citizenry should maximize the pull of external considerations. A prevailing view holds that Taiwanese victory perceptions depend almost exclusively on American military intervention. We challenge this view using two conjoint experiments with over 2400 respondents, extending the conjoint approach to a domain it is well-suited to address but rarely studied. International military support exerts the strongest effect, yet domestic factors collectively carry comparable weight. Military readiness and public morale emerge as the second and third most influential determinants, and together with political unity, these domestic attributes account for over 40% of citizens’ decision calculus. Even where conditions should maximize the pull of external considerations, Taiwanese citizens do more than look outward. They evaluate their own society’s capacity to resist. These findings suggest that weaker states facing powerful adversaries possess meaningful levers for enhancing perceived resilience beyond securing external guarantees.
Ronan Tse-min Fu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8598-5536 [email protected], Elaine I-lien Lee https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4072-9793, and Karyn Y. KaoView all authors and affiliations All Articles https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680261467
I am an Assistant Research Fellow in the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica (IPSAS). Prior to joining IPSAS, I have been a postdoctoral research fellow in the Columbia-Harvard China and the World Program and the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University.
My research sits at the intersection of international relations theory, security studies, and political psychology. I draw on quantitative, experimental, and qualitative methods to study US-China interactions, cross-Strait relations, and East Asian security.
My work has appeared or is forthcoming in British Journal of Politics and International Relations, Conflict Management and Peace Science, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, International Security, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Political Geography, Political Psychology, Pacific Review, Security Studies, and Research and Politics.
Photo Credit: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20531680261467197
By Osmar Schindler (1869-1927) - http://www.schmidt-auktionen.de/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1148038
