"Do China’s Foreign Economic Ties Lead to Influence Abroad?" - by C&WP alum Scott Kastner

Do China’s growing foreign economic ties translate into political influence abroad? We identify issues about which China cares deeply, and assess whether increased economic ties correlate with greater expressed support for Chinese activities on these issues. We collect new data to measure how countries have responded to China’s implementation of a National Security Law for Hong Kong, and recent policies in Xinjiang. We find that countries with closer economic linkages to China were less likely to criticize—and in some cases more likely to support—China’s actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, but the strength and significance of this effect vary considerably depending on the context and type of economic ties. Interestingly, the effects of China’s foreign economic ties are substantively smaller than levels of democracy and development. The findings call into question simple assumptions about the translation of economic ties into political influence, and suggest directions for future study.

Do China’s Foreign Economic Ties Lead to Influence Abroad? New Evidence from Recent Events 

Guan Wang, Margaret M Pearson, Scott L Kastner

Foreign Policy Analysis, Volume 19, Issue 4, October 2023, orad016, https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orad016

Published: 26 July 2023

Scott L. Kastner is a Professor in the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park. He graduated from Cornell University (1995), and received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, San Diego (2003). Much of Kastner's research focuses on the international politics of East Asia, and he teaches classes on international relations, US-China relations, international political economy, and East Asia. He is author of War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait (Columbia University Press, 2022), China’s Strategic Multilateralism: Investing in Global Governance (with Margaret Pearson and Chad Rector, Cambridge University Press, 2019) and Political Conflict and Economic Interdependence across the Taiwan Strait and Beyond (Stanford University Press, 2009).  His work has also appeared in journals such as International Security, Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, Comparative Political Studies, Security Studies, and Journal of Contemporary China.

Photo Credit: By From an article titled "用情感敲开心灵大门 用说理舒缓群众情绪", published by the wechat MP platform account "Xinjiang Juridical Administration", via baidu baijiahao platform archive https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1564669932542581Original image creator: 牙生, Fair use, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=58271111