"China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan" - by CWP alum M. Taylor Fravel
What lessons for a conflict over Taiwan might China be learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global responses to the war? And what are the strategic implications of these lessons? To answer these questions, I examine how the war in Ukraine may be shaping China’s assessments of the political, military and economic costs of military action against Taiwan, and how these assessments may influence China’s decision to use force against Taiwan.
Several caveats are necessary before proceeding. First, it is too soon to understand fully the lessons that China might be learning from the war in Ukraine. The war is ongoing and its outcome remains uncertain. Second, very few, if any, publicly available authoritative Chinese assessments exist that could be used to inform such analysis. As with China’s study of previous conflicts such as the Gulf War or Kosovo War, preliminary PLA military assessments of lessons learned are not openly published.Footnote1 What lessons China may be learning remains somewhat speculative at this point.
I first review China’s current approach to Taiwan to provide a context and baseline for how lessons learned from the war in Ukraine might alter China’s calculus regarding the use of force against the island. Next, I examine lessons China may be learning in three domains: political and diplomatic, military and battlefield, and economic. Taken together, on balance, these lessons suggest that the costs of military action against Taiwan are greater than China may have anticipated before Russia’s invasion. In the short to medium term, these costs will likely induce greater caution in Beijing vis-à-vis the use of force to achieve unification—so long as Beijing does not view the use of force as the only option left.
PROVOCATIONS China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan - M. Taylor Fravel
Pages 7-25 | Published online: 13 Oct 2023 - https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2023.2260141
M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Taylor studies international relations, with a focus on international security, China, and East Asia. His books include Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes, (Princeton University Press, 2008) and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949 (Princeton University Press, 2019). His other publications have appeared in International Security, Foreign Affairs, Security Studies, International Studies Review, The China Quarterly, The Washington Quarterly, Journal of Strategic Studies, Armed Forces & Society, Current History, Asian Survey, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, and Contemporary Southeast Asia.
Photo Credit: https://pixabay.com/users/david_peterson-4745048/
