"Can Rising Powers Reassure? Shifting Power, Foreign Economic Policy, And Perceptions Of Revisionist Intent" - By CWP Austin Strange

How do observers abroad assess the intentions of rising powers? In this paper, we study whether and to what extent variation in the foreign economic policy of a rising power moderates threat perceptions among observers in a declining power. We use scenario-based survey experiments administered to an elite sample of foreign policy think tank staff in the United States and members of the public. In the experiment, we systematically vary a hypothetical rising power’s foreign aid and investment strategy such that it is represented as either revisionist or status quo oriented. We find that status quo-reinforcing behavior by the rising power generally lowers perceptions of threatening intentions more than status quo-reinforcing statements. However, there is also evidence that when rising powers adopt aid and investment behaviors that are consistent with prevailing norms, rhetorical assurances of satisfaction can substantially reduce threat perceptions further. 

Can Rising Powers Reassure? Shifting Power, Foreign Economic Policy, and Perceptions of Revisionist Intent∗ Ryan Powers† Austin Strange‡ January 2023

Assistant professor: Austin Strange is Assistant Professor of International Relations in the Department of Politics and Public Administration. He researches and teaches Chinese foreign policy, international political economy, and international development. Austin's current research focuses on China's past and present roles in the world economy, with an emphasis on China's relations with developing countries.

During 2021-2022 Austin is a Wilson China Fellow at the Wilson Center, and was previously a fellow with the Columbia-Harvard China and the World Program. He received a Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University, M.A. from Zhejiang University, and B.A. from the College of William & Mary.

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