"Getting to World Class: Can China’s Military Persevere?" - by CWP alum Joel Wuthnow
Can the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) achieve its ambitious modernization goals in an era of economic stagnation? Fewer national resources for procurement combined with technological restrictions imposed by the United States and temptations to use force in regional disputes could all hinder modernization timelines that extend through 2049. Nevertheless, gloomy assessments are premature. This essay argues that the PLA will probably stay on track. China’s overall defense burden is far smaller than that of the Soviets during the Cold War or that of the U.S. today, meaning that funding will continue to flow. The impact of U.S. restrictions on the PLA will be diminished by domestic innovation and inconsistent participation by U.S. partners. Additionally, China’s leaders have generally followed a military strategy that encourages a focus on long-term modernization priorities and avoidance of strategic distractions. Consequently, Beijing will probably not see the PLA as a diminishing asset that must be used during this decade, and competitive strategies to weaken China’s military might from the outside are likely unrealistic.
China’s growth rates may have peaked, but is the same true of China’s military potential? Xi Jinping’s recent rhetoric does not betray a crisis of confidence. At the National People’s Congress last March, Xi told delegates that the party will build the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “into a great wall of steel that effectively safeguards national sovereignty, security, and development interests.”[1] The previous fall, at the 20th Party Congress, Xi stressed the party’s goal of transforming the PLA into “world-class forces” by midcentury.[2] Nevertheless, several complications stand in the way between rhetoric and reality. China’s economic growth is slowing, which could induce belt-tightening in the PLA; the United States is collaborating with its allies to limit China’s access to critical technology; and temptations to use force against territorial rivals or Taiwan could lead to a debacle that throws China off the course of its planned military modernization.
https://www.prcleader.org/amp/getting-to-world-class-can-china-s-military-persevere
Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
His recent books and monographs, all from NDU Press, include Gray Dragons: Assessing China's Senior Military Leadership (2022), Crossing the Strait: China's Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (2022, lead editor), The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context (2021, lead editor), System Overload: Can China's Military Be Distracted in a War over Taiwan? (2020), and Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms (2019, co-editor). His research and commentary has also appeared in outlets such as Asia Policy, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, The China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Joint Force Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Naval War College Review, and in edited volumes.
Prior to joining NDU, Dr. Wuthnow was a China analyst at CNA, a postdoctoral fellow in the China and the World Program at Princeton University, and a pre-doctoral fellow at The Brookings Institution. His degrees are from Princeton University (A.B., summa cum laude, in Public and International Affairs), Oxford University (M.Phil. in Modern Chinese Studies), and Columbia University (Ph.D. in Political Science). He is proficient in Mandarin.
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