CWP's Jessica Chen Weiss and Thomas Christensen on the China Power Podcast

This podcast episode is a joint and cross-over episode between the CSIS ChinaPower Podcast and the German Marshall Fund’s China Global Podcast. We are joined by Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen to discuss their recently released article titled “Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence.” The authors underline the article’s key point, that assurances, alongside threats, are an integral part of effective deterrence. They emphasize that in order for deterrence to work, the threat of punishment must be not only credible but also conditional. Finally, the authors outline what actions each of the three actors- the U.S., China, and Taiwan- should take to effectively convey assurances to one another.

Balancing Assurances and Threats in the Case of Taiwan: A conversation with Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen ChinaPower - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chinapower/id1144663360?i=1000638359217

Ms. Bonnie Glaser is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. She is also a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS. Ms. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and U.S. policy for more than three decades.

Dr. Jessica Chen Weiss is a professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies in the Department of Government at Cornell University. She was previously an assistant professor at Yale University and founded the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford University. Formerly, Dr. Weiss served as senior advisor to the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department on a Council on Foreign Relations Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars.

Dr. Thomas Christensen is a professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and World Program at Columbia University. Prior to this, he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus is on China’s foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security.

葛来仪、白洁曦、柯庆生：台海三方互动都需考虑“刚柔并济”

中国军事实力的增长以及对台湾日益强硬的态度，使得美国在台海继续进行威慑面临前所未有的挑战。美国有责任支持台湾发展防御性的“豪猪战略”（porcupine strategy）。华盛顿可以帮助台湾储备并培训台湾武装力量使用海防和防空武器，建立强大的民防力量，并为关键物资（如食品和燃料）作战略储备，以威慑并在必要时击败对台湾岛的进攻或封锁。美国军队也应更好地准备应对中国不断扩大的导弹库存，这些导弹为中国在该地区建立一个更强大、更灵活和地理位置更分散的军事存在提供了支撑，对美国地区基地乃至航空母舰构成了威胁。

但是威慑不仅仅是军械库中的武器、陆地上的军靴、天空中的战机、海面上的舰艇、或指挥台上的战略。发出可信的军事威胁只是成功达成威慑战略的一部分。同样重要的是向潜在对手提供保证，以免于同他们发生不必要的冲突。如果一个处在战争威胁中的国家意识到不诉诸战争将会带来难以承受的后果时，它将必然选择开战。正如诺贝尔奖获得者、经济学家托马斯·谢林（Thomas Schelling）多年前所写的，“再迈一步，我就开枪”只能在伴随着“如果你停下来，我就不会开枪”的隐含保证下，才能成为一种威慑威胁。

https://zhongmei.report/zh/2023/12/02/sources-of-deterrence/